Oscar Predictions 2019

The event of the year has snuck up on me, and fortunately I was able to watch every contender in every major category, so there are no asterisks or excuses. Instead of doing my usual who will and who should win contrast, I'm going to simply mention the most deserving award winner based on a variety of factors. Are these the individuals I think will actually win? Not in every case, but these are the best in their respective categories this year nonetheless. Keep in mind that I don't have a vote, and I don't have the arrogance to think I have the eye or ear for some of the more technical categories, so I will stick with the big 4 acting, the big 4 production, and cinematography and song because those are fun and I think the cinematographer is the unsung hero of a film in many cases (Deakins, you're my hero!) Anyhow, here are the most deserving winners of the year. Drumroll please.

Best Actor - The best actor of the year was most definitely Rami Malek of "Bohemian Rhapsody". The film was a fun journey down the road of familiar rock anthems, and his portrayal of the iconic Freddy Mercury was nothing short of captivating. I intentionally limited digging into the production details as there's the whole Bryan Singer thing, and although I don't know how much actual singing there was, the performance was picture perfect. Christian Bale will get his Best Actor Oscar before his career is over, but this year belongs to Rami.

Best Actress - Glenn Close kills it in "The Wife" and wins the category with little competition. Long thought of as an A-list actress, it took the perfect role (opposite a truly magnificent Jonathan Pryce) to break the nomination curse at the lucky number seven.

Best Supporting Actor - Jonathan Pryce deserves the award, but he may not technically qualify, so I'll move to my second choice, Michael B. Jordan for his subtle and brilliant role as the antagonist Killmonger in "Black Panther". Of the nominated, Mahershala Ali has the best performance, but I would say supporting actor is a stretch as he shared screen time with Viggo Mortensen. This category is typically my perennial favorite, but this is a weak year. Ali gets the statue, but Pryce or Jordan really deserved it.

Best Supporting Actress - Also a weak year for nominations, my award goes to an actress who tragically wasn't nominated. Thomasin McKenzie of "Leave No Trace". Only eighteen years young, and performing in a low-budget independent film that was one of the best of the year, but didn't get the exposure it needed for Oscar gold. A shame, but keep your eye on this young woman in the future.

Best Director - Probably the least exciting category because Alfonso Cuaron demolished the competition with "Roma". I didn't care for the narrative, but admired the detail, the beauty, and the emotion conjured by his masterful eye. He should win and will win with relative ease.

Best Picture - I've waffled on this one in recent days, and have arguments for several films to win, but honestly, it seems like the stars are in the right alignment for "A Star is Born" to take home the trophy. "Green Book" was fantastic, but missed some of the opportunities to portray a raw character, although some of the scenes were beautifully done. It came off as a bit too commercial in the end. "Vice" was my favorite of the nominees, but it was the writing and witty humor along with A-list acting the pushed it over the edge for me. "A Star is Born" just had enough of everything to win me over in the end. The acting, direction, writing, music, and execution of story was tremendous, and speaks volumes to Bradley Cooper's future behind the camera. It deserves the award in a year when there is no clear favorite.

Best Original Screenplay - I judge an original screenplay by a variety of indicators; dialogue obviously, character depth, story, and how it made me feel. Not all films are designed to make you feel happy in the end, but if it achieved its desired objective (see "Manchester by the Sea"), it's a truly great film. Of the nominees, I have to say Adam McKay's "Vice" gave me the most satisfaction and left the biggest impression on me. I love his work, and am truly excited about his future stories, and judging by his casting in recent films, most of Hollywood is pretty excited about it too.

Best Adapted Screenplay - I tend to look at adapted screenplays as a smidge less impressive than original, but that's the writer snob in me. This year, I have to go with "Blackkklansman" as the most well-written piece. I was pleased when it was included on the best picture list, and much of that is because of the sharp, breezy writing by Spike Lee and his colleagues. Great movie.

Best Cinematographer - Alfonso Cuaron will pick up a trifecta with his masterful cinematography combined with his Foreign Film win as well. If for some reason "Roma" wins best picture, he will net himself an impressive 4 Oscars in one night, which to my knowledge is unprecedented. I'm speculating that he gets 3, which is not too shabby.

Best Song - Shallow by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper. This was the most riveting musical ditty of the year, and not just because it was catchy. The song itself contributed to the gravitas of the film and contained more emotional beauty than can be described. It just frankly worked wonders in bridging the narrative, and exposing and developing the characters. It's a beautiful song when you peel back the layers and look at it as a metaphoric plot device. Sheer cinematic magic.

Other winners? "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse", and "Free Solo" (because Mr. Rogers got snubbed). The rest of the categories, I could predict, but I'd be throwing a dart blindfolded.

It will no doubt be an interesting evening, full of potential Monday morning arguments, but it's good for the industry to have categories up in the air until the envelope is opened. Let's just hope that Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty don't screw it up this time.

Alita: Battle Angel

An innocent cybernetic super-soldier warrior girl (Rosa Salazar) is found in a scrap heap by a child-longing cyber-surgeon (Christoph Waltz), leading to a rebirth that will change the way civilization has regressed. Without getting into too much detail of the clever but cliche dystopia, there are haves and have nots. The lowly Iron City dwellers, and the mysterious upper crust living in Salem (pronounced Solemn), a majestic city in the sky. Lawlessness in the city leads to gangs of hunter warriors, futuristic bounty hunters who work for the kingpin, Vector (Mahershala Ali). He in turn works for the faceless eye in the sky, Nova, who is played in a hilarious creditless cameo by... I won't spoil it. As Alita learns about her past, she learns about her future, and she begins to embrace her destiny.

"Alita: Battle Angel" has been in gestation for decades. James Cameron created "Dark Angel" back in 2000, and although unrelated ("Alita" is based on the graphic novel "Gunnm" by Yukito Kishiro) it was a preview of a concept Cameron had of a dystopian future where an elite female warrior saves humanity. It's a timeless tale of... wait, it's not. Cameron is unarguably one of the most visionary directors in history, but his storytelling leaves much to be desired. Remember that little thing he did awhile back, "Avatar?" Everything except the story (and dialogue) was absolute golden brilliance. It was a visual orgasm that moviegoers had never experienced before, and likely won't again (until "Avatar 2" hits in 2020). I'm not saying "Avatar" wasn't worth watching more than once, it is a well-executed and supercool experience, but let's be honest, the "Fern Gully" criticisms and one-with-nature zen message didn't really add value to the action and effects.

This was the reason I was excited to experience the IMAX 3D version of "Alita" to just get a glimmer of cutting edge visual effects. Well, I have some good news and I have some bad news. Which would you like first? The bad news is that the story is weak and recycled from more 1980's sci-fi action films than I could name. The love story is awkward and frankly kind of uncomfortable, and the dialogue is next to awful. The weapons and fight scenes are a bit clunky and blunt (lots of oversized hammers, saws, axes, etc.) and the sporting event sidebar is just unnecessary and adds distraction and cheese to the narrative.

The good news is that two Oscar winning actors, Jennifer Connelly, Jackie Early Haley's voice (my favorite part of the movie) and Rosa Salazar in a stunning motion-capture performance salvage the scrap heap of a story, but just barely. They don't spend too much time developing the 26th century universe, and don't waste our time with the back story flashbacks, or explaining how things work in the new time frame. They just jump into it and move forward. Kudos to Cameron for that. Additionally, and most importantly, the film is visually stunning from start to finish.

The first installment of a trilogy, the next episode will be based on "Last Order" and the third on "Mars Chronicle." I would expect this trilogy to continue as it is clearly a passion project of Cameron, and is likely to make money globally due to the high quality visual effects. Besides, Cameron will get to play with new technology in his spare time while he's developing "Avatar 3, 4, and 5". This is assuming director Robert Rodriguez is interested in continuing, as this was certainly no easy feat. The attention to detail is obvious, and I admire the work and toil this must have taken.

It's for these reasons that I give it a slightly higher rating than I would typically to a movie of this type. I was impressed and disappointed at the same time, but honestly, it synced up with my expectations pretty closely. This is a typically weak time of year for films, and with a lack of viable entertainment options, there are certainly worse ways to spend two hours of your time. 7/10. For the love of Cameron.

Why Disney has Already Won 2019

Disney has long been a titan in the pantheon of cinema, but 2019 just might be a landmark year, and I would recommend purchasing stock before it goes through the roof.

No fewer than six films will certainly cross the $1 billion dollar mark, and the collection in its totality should easily surpass the $10 billion threshold (2019 releases continuing to earn into 2020 included). Personally, I have some interest in the live-action remake genre that has dabbled in years past, only to find an under-the-radar smash hit in 2017's "Beauty and the Beast."

Breaking the films into four distinct categories (Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilms), my prediction is that Disney will carry the five highest grossing films of the year, something that has never been done by a single studio in history.

March is typically the early entries for Box Office supremacy, and we will see "Captain Marvel" take an early lead on the global market. Although highly anticipated and a massive step for Marvel into new territory (powerful female, cosmic powers) it won't echo the success of last year's "Black Panther." Following a few short weeks later is Tim Burton's imaginative take on the beloved classic, "Dumbo." Of all the films on this list, there are perhaps four that I don't intend to see, and "Dumbo" is probably the one I am least interested in.

April brings the documentary "Penguins" as well as the mother of all superhero films, "Avengers: Endgame." Surprisingly, I predict that "Avengers" will fall to fourth place in the annual list. It is certain to be the most satisfying of the films, and I intend to see it multiple times myself, but at three hours, and marking the certain deaths of multiple heroes, it may be a bit too heavy for some audiences. Also, rated PG-13, it loses a certain core demographic that Disney has targeted since the 1930's.

May is when the box office will heat up. "Avengers" will dominate most of the month until "Aladdin" comes out. Headlined by Will Smith as the blue genie, it should do well at the box office, but I don't imagine it will gain the critical acclaim it may be seeking.

June brings "Toy Story 4" which will move "Avengers" to number two on the list, and become the darling of the year until something a bit more frigid hits in November.

In July, it's time to back up the Brinks truck. "Spider-Man: Far From Home" (a Sony release, but in association with Marvel and Disney) is going to be the box office smash that "Black Panther" was last year. Then "Lion King" roars into theatres, and will supplant "Avengers" and "Toy Story" as the box office king of the year.

For those keeping score at home, we now have the top six (or seven) grossing films of the year; "Lion King," "Toy Story 4," "Avengers: Endgame," "Spider-Man: Far From Home," "Aladdin," and "Captain Marvel". "Dumbo" sits on the outside looking in, but don't feel too badly for the floppy-eared elephant, he will still make nine figures.

August brings the lone Disney action film of the year based on the kids novel, "Artemis Fowl." I don't have high hopes for this one, but it should be profitable nonetheless. It has the promise to fill the gap as we all hold our collective breath for the final two films of the year.

November brings the cold, harsh winter, and with it, the unfathomably anticipated "Frozen 2." This will immediately smash records, and will reign as box office queen of 2019, making its permanent mark on boxofficemojo's list of cinematic gladiators. Four films have broken the $2 billion mark in history, and for my money, "Frozen 2" has a strong shot at surpassing its predecessor and hitting that mark.

Closing out the year, we have the finale to the trilogy of trilogies in "Star Wars: Episode IX." It will take strong reviews and audience reception in order to overcome the disappointment of "Episode VIII" which seems a pretty challenging obstacle, even for JJ Abrams.

The executives at Disney Films have brilliantly spaced out their releases to capitalize on the demand and the market, and we will see the highest marketshare in history if you include the Sony/Marvel/Fox collaborations ("Dark Phoenix" and "New Mutants" will expand the X-Men universe this year, setting the table for a whole new world in the ever-expanding MCEU)

Thirty-seven films have grossed over $1 billion in history, and in 2019, Disney will add more than a half dozen films to that order (I predict eight). Not a bad year for a company founded on a mouse. I challenge any other studio to deliver any film that can break into the top six. I give "Pokemon," "Secret Life of Pets 2," and "Hobbs and Shaw" the best shots at climbing the list. Without further ado, here are your highest grossing films of 2019.

1. Frozen 2
2. Lion King
3. Spider-Man: Far From Home (in association with Marvel)
4. Toy Story 4
5. Avengers: Endgame
6. Star Wars: Episode IX
7. The Secret Life of Pets 2
8. Hobbs and Shaw
9. Aladdin
10. Captain Marvel

Best of 2018

2018 was a decent year in film, but lacked a real strong front-runner despite several very diverse films. I had high hopes for "Beautiful Boy," "The Favourite," "Roma," and "Boy Erased" but all were a bit lackluster. Lucas Hedges, Stephan James, Joe Alwyn, and Timothee Chalamet showed that they are the faces of the future in film, but nothing really stood out in terms of a cinematic masterpiece.

Top Ten (in alphabetical order)
A Star is Born
Avengers: Infinity War
Blackkklansman
Eighth Grade
Green Book
Hearts Beat Loud
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice

Best Film of the Year
My pick for Best Picture would have to be "Vice". "Green Book" is a close second and is my prediction to win the Oscar this year, but for my money, I thought Adam McKay's satirical dark-comedy-biopic was the most satisfying.

Best Action Film
"Avengers: Infinity War" was by far the most exciting film experience of the year, and the only film I felt compelled to see multiple times in the theatre. To see "Black Panther" given such an array of awards and recognition over the massive ensemble that the brothers Russo masterfully orchestrated is a bit of a shame. I would expect that if "Avengers: Endgame" is the film that everyone expects it to be, it should get some 2019 recognition.

Scariest Film
"Hereditary" haunted me. There were several scenes that seared their way into my brain, and Toni Collette's performance in particular was legendary, and worthy of Oscar nomination.

Most Overrated
"The Favourite" was an overhyped piece of mediocrity. Great acting by the three leading women, but the story was a bloated period piece that had desperate "Barry Lyndon" nuances. Yorgos Lanthimos is quirky and talented, but this wasn't the best film of the year, much less top ten.

Most Underrated
It is challenging to choose between three independent films that really moved me. "Hearts Beat Loud," "Eighth Grade," and "Leave No Trace" were all breaths of fresh air. Worthwhile viewing experiences filled with an emotional spectrum that a true cinephile would applaud. All driven by strong, young leading ladies, keep an eye on Kiersey Clemons, Thomasin McKenzie, and Elsie Fisher in the future. They are all terrific actresses.

Best Animated
I was a bit surprised by how weak "Ralph Breaks the Internet" ended up being (my son was disappointed as well), and "Incredibles 2" was certainly strong as a sequel, but the best animated film of the year was "Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse." It was clever, fresh, and a visual feast. I'm hoping Marvel capitalizes on its dual success and keeps projects like it in the pipeline to make a parallel universe for us to enjoy.

Biggest Surprise
The decimation at the end of "Avengers: Infinity War" aside, the biggest surprise in film this year had to be that 7 of the 11 highest grossing films of the year are superhero flicks. When will audiences tire of the familiar tropes? Rhetorical question. The answer seems to be never, although DC needs to step up their game and has the opportunity with this year's "Shazam!" and next year's "Birds of Prey," "Wonder Woman 1984," and "Flash." I've said it before, and I'll say it again - DC needs to expand with a film that will move out of Gotham or Metropolis. Something that will rival what Marvel did with the "Guardians of the Galaxy" and the upcoming "Captain Marvel" arc. But alas, DC won't listen to me. Yet...

Biggest Disappointment
I'm not sure anyone expected "Solo" to be an instant classic, but it was destined to fail when the directors were canned mid-way through production. Alden Ehrenreich is an incredible actor, but perhaps wasn't the right pick to play the young Han Solo. Firmly placing doubt in my mind as to the future of the revered Star Wars universe, I think Episode 9 may be the end of the line (critically, not fiscally).

Must-See
Since everyone has already seen "Avengers: Infinity War" I would recommend none other than "Won't You Be My Neighbor." It was left out of the Best Documentary category in what is the biggest snub of the year, and the message is as timely as ever in today's challenging climate. It's beautiful and nostalgic and although you'll be sad to watch Mr. Rogers go again at the end, there is a ray of hope in his legacy. It's not the last we'll see of the Mr. Rogers story either, as Tom Hanks and Marielle Heller ("Can You Ever Forgive Me?") team up for 2019's Oscar hopeful "A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood."

Always looking forward, 2019 promises to be even bigger and better than 2018. Here's hoping.

Golden Globes 2019

This upcoming weekend will officially set the pecking order for Oscar favorites in the film community, as the Golden Globes are often (but not always) indicators of who will take home the coveted statue. This year's list of Globe nominees left a few notable names and films off the list this year, which was surprising but not unexpected; after all, there are only five slots, and they haven't put me fully in charge of nominations (yet), so my projections aren't always reflected on the big evening. Anyhow, I'm sticking with film, and with the big categories only, so here are my predictions and corrections for next weekend:

Best Picture: Drama - "A Star Is Born" seems to be the favorite at this point, and given the company, I tend to agree that it deserves the win. I might argue that along with "Bohemian Rhapsody," they might be in the wrong category given their strong reliance on music for effect. Moving toward the big show, I don't see the Best Picture Oscar coming from any of these nominees. I would have liked to have seen some of the stronger independent films represented ("Leave No Trace," "First Reformed," "Eighth Grade," "Sorry to Bother You.")

Best Picture: Comedy/Musical - "Vice" was my favorite film of the year, but this category is stacked and will produce the Best Picture winner at the Oscars. "Green Book" and "The Favourite" are worthy adversaries, but the political dramedy is too timely and clever to be overlooked. It should and will win.

Best Actor: Drama - Ryan Gosling and Ethan Hawke were snubbed this year, but Rami Malek had the ripest role of the year, and should deservedly win. "Bohemian Rhapsody" was a bit too optimistic for a true biopic, but there was a remarkable transformation and Malek became Freddy Mercury, which is always a challenging proposition. Expect him to battle another biopic behemoth for Best Actor at the Oscars.

Best Actress: Drama - Full disclosure, I didn't see "The Wife" and I hear Glenn Close's performance is tremendous, but I am coming around on Nicole Kidman. "Destroyer" is the best performance of her long and distinguished career, and I'm a sucker for police dramas. I predict Close gets the award unless "A Star is Born" steamrolls all competition, but I would choose Kidman.

Best Actor: Comedy/Musical - Christian Bale will take this one, but if he doesn't, it will be the upset of the night. Anything can happen when you're dealing with the Hollywood Foreign Press. His portrayal of Dick Cheney in a not-quite-comedy portrayal should challenge all-comers on Oscar night for writing, picture, and multiple acting performances.

Best Actress: Comedy/Musical - I would love to see Elsie Fisher take home the gold, as her performance was heartbreaking and genuine (although there may not have been a considerable amount of "acting" going on) but I'm choosing Emily Blunt for resurrecting one of the most iconic roles in film history and actually doing it well. Not only was "Mary Poppins Returns" satisfying as a sequel 54 years in the making, but it was truly one of the best films of the year as well.

Best Supporting Actor - always my favorite category, and one that yields the most captivating performances, I am torn between Ali and Chalamet on this one. Although I suspect Ali will win because "Green Book" deserves some recognition and all the other nominations are overshadowed a bit, I am absolutely in awe of Timothy Chalamet. His summer film "Hot Summer Nights" was severely underrated, nearly making my top-10 list of the year, and I have yet to see him in a bad film, or in a poorly done role. He is the face of the next generation, and his work in "Beautiful Boy" is stellar, even if the film wasn't quite up to par. On an aside, Steve Carell was mis-cast, and the film could have really exploded on the awards scene if the father was played by someone a bit less known for humor.

Best Supporting Actress - an incredibly strong category this year, Weisz and Stone will cancel each other out, which leaves powerful biopic wives (Adams and Foy) as the front-runners in my book. Both were outstanding and deserving, but the edge has to go to Amy Adams for her portrayal of Lynne Cheney. "First Man" suffered from ultra-realism, and the Armstrongs just didn't have the drama in their lives or to their personalities that the Cheneys did, and for that reason, the acting seems stronger even if it truly wasn't. Watch closely at the acting of "First Man" and you will probably appreciate it more than at first glance. However, this is Amy Adams' year.

Best Foreign Film: The only one I saw was "Roma" but it was beautiful. Not particularly exciting, but the detail in the set and cinematography is remarkable. It should win best Foreign film, and absolutely deserves Best Director as well.

Best Animated Film - "Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse" was absurd, but visually beautiful. You've never seen a film done quite this way, and I suspect that with the critical and box office success, Marvel (and DC) will venture more deliberately into this market with more offerings as soon as next year.

Best Director - McKay and Cooper do a fine job, and should be honored to be nominated, but Alfonso Cuaron is on another level with his vision and execution. "Roma" wins and should continue to earn honors through the Academy Awards.

Best Screenplay - I'm going with Adam McKay on this one. "Vice" certainly took liberties on the factual aspect (due conveniently to the secrecy of the subject matter) but much like "The Big Short," the film was intellectual, entertaining, funny, and more than anything else, a frightening commentary on history. The screenplay deserves recognition based on its execution.

Vice

The title of Adam McKay's latest is a bit misleading; it's not a reference to the oft-mocked figurehead position in the Executive Branch, but more an allusion to the addictive grip of power and the extents men will go to achieve it.

Chronicling the life of Dick Cheney (Christian Bale), one of the more mysterious vice presidents in modern history, "Vice" breaks the typical rules of a biopic by taking some dramatic and comedic liberties (the benefits of redacted intelligence briefings and missing emails) and as seen in 2016's "The Big Short," breaking the fourth wall to help the viewer better understand some of the more critical terms (Unitary Executive Theory). The narrator (Jesse Plemons) is cleverly an ancillary character whose importance isn't revealed until the near ending.

Cheney's rise to power began in humble beginnings in 1960's Wyoming where the literal and metaphoric fly-fishing background is at the core of his character's lifelong process. By a stroke of luck, he crosses paths with Donald Rumsfeld (Steve Carrell) and begins an impressive political career (Representative, Secretary of Defense, Chief of Staff, Vice-President). But throughout the whole film, there is always a sense of who's really driving his ambition (Lynn Cheney; played by Amy Adams) and never a complete sense of satisfaction with his own level of power and achievement. He aspires to the top position in the white house, but just never quite gained the momentum or recognition among the voting masses. One of the few downsides to being a quiet, unassuming enigmatic man. His respect and influence within the Capitol Hill community however, is undeniable.

The real story kicks in when he mulls over the offer to be the running mate to a Texan political legacy who doesn't really have a sense of his own purpose (played magnificently by Sam Rockwell). The realization that he can run the country even more effectively as an autocrat if he has one foot in the Legislative, and one foot in the Executive Branches is validated by the thought that if he's part of each, he's not technically accountable to either. A flawless logic that was clearly what the founding fathers were thinking when they established checks and balances.

Christian Bale is a master of capturing a character, but it's what is happening behind his eyes that make this performance so compelling. The moments of silence in between lines of dialogue leave you desperately wanting to know his thought process. A surefire Best Actor nominee, the only thing stopping him from the award is the absence of a monologue or fiery speech, but that's just not who Dick Cheney was (or is perceived to be).

The supporting cast simply shines as Amy Adams, Sam Rockwell, and Steve Carrell turn in tremendous performances without overshadowing Bale's Cheney. The makeup artists deserve some recognition as we see them all age over the course of over thirty years.

What stands out is how sharply the film is put together. Documentary snippets, beautiful visual metaphors, and the use of narration and subtitles to break up the monotony of the history lesson leads to a conveyance of information in a way that tricks the viewer to enjoy it far more than they might if it were simply on The History Channel. Adam McKay has shown twice now that he's more than just Will Farrell's business partner. He's a legitimate writer and director, brilliantly carving out a niche for himself. Next up? "Bad Blood" with Jennifer Lawrence based on a shady tech entrepreneur.

This film fills a void this holiday (and awards) season. There are plenty of biopics, feel-good musicals, feel-bad musicals, uncomfortable looks at race relations, and even an epic superhero film where all of the favorites (gasp) die! But we don't have a film like this in the mix, and for that, I'm, declaring it my top film of 2018. Best Picture and Best Screenplay winners, and a few more nominations to boot. It doesn't get much more entertaining than this, but after all, my bias is probably showing. I am a US History teacher, and ran for Congress this past election... 9/10.