Oscar Predictions 2019

The event of the year has snuck up on me, and fortunately I was able to watch every contender in every major category, so there are no asterisks or excuses. Instead of doing my usual who will and who should win contrast, I'm going to simply mention the most deserving award winner based on a variety of factors. Are these the individuals I think will actually win? Not in every case, but these are the best in their respective categories this year nonetheless. Keep in mind that I don't have a vote, and I don't have the arrogance to think I have the eye or ear for some of the more technical categories, so I will stick with the big 4 acting, the big 4 production, and cinematography and song because those are fun and I think the cinematographer is the unsung hero of a film in many cases (Deakins, you're my hero!) Anyhow, here are the most deserving winners of the year. Drumroll please.

Best Actor - The best actor of the year was most definitely Rami Malek of "Bohemian Rhapsody". The film was a fun journey down the road of familiar rock anthems, and his portrayal of the iconic Freddy Mercury was nothing short of captivating. I intentionally limited digging into the production details as there's the whole Bryan Singer thing, and although I don't know how much actual singing there was, the performance was picture perfect. Christian Bale will get his Best Actor Oscar before his career is over, but this year belongs to Rami.

Best Actress - Glenn Close kills it in "The Wife" and wins the category with little competition. Long thought of as an A-list actress, it took the perfect role (opposite a truly magnificent Jonathan Pryce) to break the nomination curse at the lucky number seven.

Best Supporting Actor - Jonathan Pryce deserves the award, but he may not technically qualify, so I'll move to my second choice, Michael B. Jordan for his subtle and brilliant role as the antagonist Killmonger in "Black Panther". Of the nominated, Mahershala Ali has the best performance, but I would say supporting actor is a stretch as he shared screen time with Viggo Mortensen. This category is typically my perennial favorite, but this is a weak year. Ali gets the statue, but Pryce or Jordan really deserved it.

Best Supporting Actress - Also a weak year for nominations, my award goes to an actress who tragically wasn't nominated. Thomasin McKenzie of "Leave No Trace". Only eighteen years young, and performing in a low-budget independent film that was one of the best of the year, but didn't get the exposure it needed for Oscar gold. A shame, but keep your eye on this young woman in the future.

Best Director - Probably the least exciting category because Alfonso Cuaron demolished the competition with "Roma". I didn't care for the narrative, but admired the detail, the beauty, and the emotion conjured by his masterful eye. He should win and will win with relative ease.

Best Picture - I've waffled on this one in recent days, and have arguments for several films to win, but honestly, it seems like the stars are in the right alignment for "A Star is Born" to take home the trophy. "Green Book" was fantastic, but missed some of the opportunities to portray a raw character, although some of the scenes were beautifully done. It came off as a bit too commercial in the end. "Vice" was my favorite of the nominees, but it was the writing and witty humor along with A-list acting the pushed it over the edge for me. "A Star is Born" just had enough of everything to win me over in the end. The acting, direction, writing, music, and execution of story was tremendous, and speaks volumes to Bradley Cooper's future behind the camera. It deserves the award in a year when there is no clear favorite.

Best Original Screenplay - I judge an original screenplay by a variety of indicators; dialogue obviously, character depth, story, and how it made me feel. Not all films are designed to make you feel happy in the end, but if it achieved its desired objective (see "Manchester by the Sea"), it's a truly great film. Of the nominees, I have to say Adam McKay's "Vice" gave me the most satisfaction and left the biggest impression on me. I love his work, and am truly excited about his future stories, and judging by his casting in recent films, most of Hollywood is pretty excited about it too.

Best Adapted Screenplay - I tend to look at adapted screenplays as a smidge less impressive than original, but that's the writer snob in me. This year, I have to go with "Blackkklansman" as the most well-written piece. I was pleased when it was included on the best picture list, and much of that is because of the sharp, breezy writing by Spike Lee and his colleagues. Great movie.

Best Cinematographer - Alfonso Cuaron will pick up a trifecta with his masterful cinematography combined with his Foreign Film win as well. If for some reason "Roma" wins best picture, he will net himself an impressive 4 Oscars in one night, which to my knowledge is unprecedented. I'm speculating that he gets 3, which is not too shabby.

Best Song - Shallow by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper. This was the most riveting musical ditty of the year, and not just because it was catchy. The song itself contributed to the gravitas of the film and contained more emotional beauty than can be described. It just frankly worked wonders in bridging the narrative, and exposing and developing the characters. It's a beautiful song when you peel back the layers and look at it as a metaphoric plot device. Sheer cinematic magic.

Other winners? "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse", and "Free Solo" (because Mr. Rogers got snubbed). The rest of the categories, I could predict, but I'd be throwing a dart blindfolded.

It will no doubt be an interesting evening, full of potential Monday morning arguments, but it's good for the industry to have categories up in the air until the envelope is opened. Let's just hope that Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty don't screw it up this time.