Golden Globes 2019

This upcoming weekend will officially set the pecking order for Oscar favorites in the film community, as the Golden Globes are often (but not always) indicators of who will take home the coveted statue. This year's list of Globe nominees left a few notable names and films off the list this year, which was surprising but not unexpected; after all, there are only five slots, and they haven't put me fully in charge of nominations (yet), so my projections aren't always reflected on the big evening. Anyhow, I'm sticking with film, and with the big categories only, so here are my predictions and corrections for next weekend:

Best Picture: Drama - "A Star Is Born" seems to be the favorite at this point, and given the company, I tend to agree that it deserves the win. I might argue that along with "Bohemian Rhapsody," they might be in the wrong category given their strong reliance on music for effect. Moving toward the big show, I don't see the Best Picture Oscar coming from any of these nominees. I would have liked to have seen some of the stronger independent films represented ("Leave No Trace," "First Reformed," "Eighth Grade," "Sorry to Bother You.")

Best Picture: Comedy/Musical - "Vice" was my favorite film of the year, but this category is stacked and will produce the Best Picture winner at the Oscars. "Green Book" and "The Favourite" are worthy adversaries, but the political dramedy is too timely and clever to be overlooked. It should and will win.

Best Actor: Drama - Ryan Gosling and Ethan Hawke were snubbed this year, but Rami Malek had the ripest role of the year, and should deservedly win. "Bohemian Rhapsody" was a bit too optimistic for a true biopic, but there was a remarkable transformation and Malek became Freddy Mercury, which is always a challenging proposition. Expect him to battle another biopic behemoth for Best Actor at the Oscars.

Best Actress: Drama - Full disclosure, I didn't see "The Wife" and I hear Glenn Close's performance is tremendous, but I am coming around on Nicole Kidman. "Destroyer" is the best performance of her long and distinguished career, and I'm a sucker for police dramas. I predict Close gets the award unless "A Star is Born" steamrolls all competition, but I would choose Kidman.

Best Actor: Comedy/Musical - Christian Bale will take this one, but if he doesn't, it will be the upset of the night. Anything can happen when you're dealing with the Hollywood Foreign Press. His portrayal of Dick Cheney in a not-quite-comedy portrayal should challenge all-comers on Oscar night for writing, picture, and multiple acting performances.

Best Actress: Comedy/Musical - I would love to see Elsie Fisher take home the gold, as her performance was heartbreaking and genuine (although there may not have been a considerable amount of "acting" going on) but I'm choosing Emily Blunt for resurrecting one of the most iconic roles in film history and actually doing it well. Not only was "Mary Poppins Returns" satisfying as a sequel 54 years in the making, but it was truly one of the best films of the year as well.

Best Supporting Actor - always my favorite category, and one that yields the most captivating performances, I am torn between Ali and Chalamet on this one. Although I suspect Ali will win because "Green Book" deserves some recognition and all the other nominations are overshadowed a bit, I am absolutely in awe of Timothy Chalamet. His summer film "Hot Summer Nights" was severely underrated, nearly making my top-10 list of the year, and I have yet to see him in a bad film, or in a poorly done role. He is the face of the next generation, and his work in "Beautiful Boy" is stellar, even if the film wasn't quite up to par. On an aside, Steve Carell was mis-cast, and the film could have really exploded on the awards scene if the father was played by someone a bit less known for humor.

Best Supporting Actress - an incredibly strong category this year, Weisz and Stone will cancel each other out, which leaves powerful biopic wives (Adams and Foy) as the front-runners in my book. Both were outstanding and deserving, but the edge has to go to Amy Adams for her portrayal of Lynne Cheney. "First Man" suffered from ultra-realism, and the Armstrongs just didn't have the drama in their lives or to their personalities that the Cheneys did, and for that reason, the acting seems stronger even if it truly wasn't. Watch closely at the acting of "First Man" and you will probably appreciate it more than at first glance. However, this is Amy Adams' year.

Best Foreign Film: The only one I saw was "Roma" but it was beautiful. Not particularly exciting, but the detail in the set and cinematography is remarkable. It should win best Foreign film, and absolutely deserves Best Director as well.

Best Animated Film - "Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse" was absurd, but visually beautiful. You've never seen a film done quite this way, and I suspect that with the critical and box office success, Marvel (and DC) will venture more deliberately into this market with more offerings as soon as next year.

Best Director - McKay and Cooper do a fine job, and should be honored to be nominated, but Alfonso Cuaron is on another level with his vision and execution. "Roma" wins and should continue to earn honors through the Academy Awards.

Best Screenplay - I'm going with Adam McKay on this one. "Vice" certainly took liberties on the factual aspect (due conveniently to the secrecy of the subject matter) but much like "The Big Short," the film was intellectual, entertaining, funny, and more than anything else, a frightening commentary on history. The screenplay deserves recognition based on its execution.