2013 Oscar Nomination Commentary

The nominations have been out for a few days now, and with the Golden Globes tomorrow night, it's the perfect time to discuss how things are going to play out, with a full rundown of the true snubs and shocks.

The obvious discussion piece is Affleck, Bigelow, and Hooper being left off the ballot for Best Director. The real consequence is the fact that a film hasn't won Best Picture without the director nominated since 1989's Driving Ms. Daisy. That's a trend that's likely to continue. As a result, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, and Les Miserables have virtually no chance at the ultimate prize. Sad but true. Zero Dark Thirty was my favorite for the year, and I honestly think Argo deserves to be named the best film of 2012.

With so much talent in the acting categories, I could regurgitate my thoughts that Leo DiCaprio was given the shaft. Again. However, Christoph Waltz was a compelling character, and there isn't a bad nomination in the bunch. I would have liked to see Andy Serkis receive at least some mention in the supporting actor discussion, as well as Jason Clarke for his harrowing work in Zero Dark Thirty. John Hawkes for Best Actor is my only other complaint, as he is so complex of an actor.

I was disappointed that Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, Looper, and Skyfall were kept out of the race. It's only been a few years since the rules have changed, and although I can see the merits of opening the Best Picture category to more films, I'm not seeing a whole lot of diversity yet.

That said, there are a few different ways that the night could play out. Scenario one follows The Artist's lead and gives the accolades to the film that I consider to be out of its league. I am referring of course to Amour. Also nominated in the Best Foreign film category, it has critics oohing and aahing, but it is in fact a foreign film, which is out of bounds in my mind. The Artist was basically a foreign language film, and it won Best Actor, Director, and Picture last year. If last year has taught us anything, it's that the Academy values sophisticated foreign fare over the more traditional domestic films. Think a fancy little 8 ounce rare filet mignon next to a thick, juicy porterhouse. I prefer porterhouse.

Scenario 2 is a mish-mash of award winners. Spread the love out a little bit. Ang Lee could win his 2nd Best Director award, and Spielberg could pick one up for Lincoln. Jessica Chastain could represent Zero Dark Thirty, while Tarantino or Wes Anderson could pick up a writing statue. Hell, maybe Joaquin Phoenix could pick up a Best Actor Oscar, Nobody would complain too much. I don't like this scenario though. It's too self-serving, and doesn't offend anyone enough.

Scenario 3 has the darling of the ball, Silver Linings Playbook picking up awards in surprise fashion. It appears likely that Jennifer Lawrence will win, and it was the closest thing to a mainstream film that there is in the nominated category (assuming the Driving Ms. Daisy rule is in effect). David O. Russell and the film could win, as Oscar has been more full of surprises lately than ever before. Too bad for Bradley Cooper though. He has absolutely zero chance.

Scenario 4 seems much more likely. A sweep of the awards by Lincoln. Picture, Director, Actor. I hesitate to think that Sally Field will win strictly because Anne Hathaway had more screen time, and was better. Tommy Lee Jones however, will win for his portrayal of the curmudgeonly Thaddeus Stevens. History will be made under this scenario, as Daniel Day-Lewis will become the first 3 time Best Actor winner, Spielberg will win his 4th and 5th Oscars, putting him in the elite in history. Jones will win his 2nd, and Hathaway and Lawrence their 1st giving a little love to the young and good looking Hollywood crowd. John Williams will most certainly win his 5th Oscar, on top of his 41st nomination (not a typo). It's going to be a big night for Hollywood. Give them a chance to pat themselves on the back.

Here's how it will happen. Call me the Nate Silver of Oscar.

Picture - Lincoln
Director - Steven Spielberg - Lincoln
Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Actress - Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Original Screenplay - Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
Adapted Screenplay - Tony Kushner - Lincoln
Cinematography - Roger Deakins - Skyfall
Score - John Williams - Lincoln
Song - "Skyfall" - Adele
Documentary - How to Survive a Plague
Foreign Film - Amour
Animated Film - Wreck-It Ralph

The other categories are a crapshoot. There's no actual merit, it's simply speculation. Wait, they are all a crapshoot, but these are the ones who will come out on top. Mark my words.