Early Oscar Buzz

Time for some early Oscar buzz discussion. I know, the Golden Globes are usually the first indicator of Academy Awards candidates, but after seeing a handful of films, and a clear picture of the quality of film emerging, it is time to look at the categories.
Best Picture
This is the first (and hopefully last) year of expanding the category to 10 nominees. This is not going to be the boon that the Academy was hoping for, instead there will be some relatively unworthy recognition bestowed upon some of the films.
Avatar - Absolutely the blockbuster of the year. Look for this to break box office records as well as revolutionize action cinema forever. This is my front-runner for Best Picture winner.
the Hurt Locker
This is a wonderful film that would not typically receive the recognition that it deserves, but with the extended list of candidates, it should be there. Not going to win, but definitely deserving.
Invictus
This film looks absolutely amazing, and is yet another of Eastwood's masterpieces. Who would have thought that Dirty Harry would become one of the most prolific directors around?
Nine
I am incredibly curious about this one. Daniel Day-Lewis heads an all-star cast in what can only be described as this year's Chicago.
Up in the Air
Jason Reitman is clearly a chip off the old block, but he may have more dramatic credibility.
Precious
With surprising buzz, and a gut-wrenching story, this may be the Slumdog Millionaire of 2009.
A Single Man
Receiving tremendous buzz for performances by both Moore and Firth, this one should be on the list on quality acting alone.

This brings us to the three films that would never, ever receive recognition if there were 5 candidates, but all three truly deserve recognition.

Inglorious Basterds
A Tarantino masterpiece. Great story, acting, and the ending was one of the most indulgent film fantasies this year.
District 9
Excellent story, creative effects, and overall well done.
Star Trek
Abrams again delivers, this time with the kickoff to a new generation of Star Trek franchising. The sequels will surely not disappoint.

One final possibility - depends on the opening date:
The Lovely Bones
I did not read the book, but from what I've heard, the adaptation is brilliant. Peter Jackson has been out of the spotlight since the Lord of the Rings films, but this film will be nominated if it is released in 2009.

Winner - Avatar

Best Director

Eastwood - Invictus
Cameron - Avatar
Marshal - Nine
Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds
Daniels - Precious

Bigelow and Reitman for the Hurt Locker and Up in the Air are also possible considerations, but I like Tarantino and Daniels to round out the usual suspects.

Winner - Cameron - Avatar

Best Actor
Freeman - Invictus
Clooney - Up in the Air
Renner - The Hurt Locker
Day-Lewis - Nine
Firth - A Single Man

This is a loaded category this year, but I like these five for nominations.

Winner - Freeman - Invictus

Best Actress
Sidibe - Precious
Streep - Julie and Julia
Cornish - Bright Star
Mulligan - An Education

There are a handful of others who may infiltrate this category, but as I've mentioned before, the actress categories are my weakness for prediction.

Best Supporting Actor
My favorite category year after year
Damon - Invictus
Lang - Avatar
Waltz - Inglorious
Molina - An Education
Baldwin - It's Complicated

Tucci looks absolutely frightening in Lovely Bones, so he is a sure thing if the film is in the hunt this year.

Winner - Waltz - Inglorious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Cruz - Nine
Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Moore - A Single Man
Thompson - An Education

Winner - Cruz - Nine

My official predictions will come once the nominations are announced, but for now my short list of films to see:
Nine
Up in the Air
Precious
A Single Man
Avatar
Invictus