Oscar Predictions 2019

The event of the year has snuck up on me, and fortunately I was able to watch every contender in every major category, so there are no asterisks or excuses. Instead of doing my usual who will and who should win contrast, I'm going to simply mention the most deserving award winner based on a variety of factors. Are these the individuals I think will actually win? Not in every case, but these are the best in their respective categories this year nonetheless. Keep in mind that I don't have a vote, and I don't have the arrogance to think I have the eye or ear for some of the more technical categories, so I will stick with the big 4 acting, the big 4 production, and cinematography and song because those are fun and I think the cinematographer is the unsung hero of a film in many cases (Deakins, you're my hero!) Anyhow, here are the most deserving winners of the year. Drumroll please.

Best Actor - The best actor of the year was most definitely Rami Malek of "Bohemian Rhapsody". The film was a fun journey down the road of familiar rock anthems, and his portrayal of the iconic Freddy Mercury was nothing short of captivating. I intentionally limited digging into the production details as there's the whole Bryan Singer thing, and although I don't know how much actual singing there was, the performance was picture perfect. Christian Bale will get his Best Actor Oscar before his career is over, but this year belongs to Rami.

Best Actress - Glenn Close kills it in "The Wife" and wins the category with little competition. Long thought of as an A-list actress, it took the perfect role (opposite a truly magnificent Jonathan Pryce) to break the nomination curse at the lucky number seven.

Best Supporting Actor - Jonathan Pryce deserves the award, but he may not technically qualify, so I'll move to my second choice, Michael B. Jordan for his subtle and brilliant role as the antagonist Killmonger in "Black Panther". Of the nominated, Mahershala Ali has the best performance, but I would say supporting actor is a stretch as he shared screen time with Viggo Mortensen. This category is typically my perennial favorite, but this is a weak year. Ali gets the statue, but Pryce or Jordan really deserved it.

Best Supporting Actress - Also a weak year for nominations, my award goes to an actress who tragically wasn't nominated. Thomasin McKenzie of "Leave No Trace". Only eighteen years young, and performing in a low-budget independent film that was one of the best of the year, but didn't get the exposure it needed for Oscar gold. A shame, but keep your eye on this young woman in the future.

Best Director - Probably the least exciting category because Alfonso Cuaron demolished the competition with "Roma". I didn't care for the narrative, but admired the detail, the beauty, and the emotion conjured by his masterful eye. He should win and will win with relative ease.

Best Picture - I've waffled on this one in recent days, and have arguments for several films to win, but honestly, it seems like the stars are in the right alignment for "A Star is Born" to take home the trophy. "Green Book" was fantastic, but missed some of the opportunities to portray a raw character, although some of the scenes were beautifully done. It came off as a bit too commercial in the end. "Vice" was my favorite of the nominees, but it was the writing and witty humor along with A-list acting the pushed it over the edge for me. "A Star is Born" just had enough of everything to win me over in the end. The acting, direction, writing, music, and execution of story was tremendous, and speaks volumes to Bradley Cooper's future behind the camera. It deserves the award in a year when there is no clear favorite.

Best Original Screenplay - I judge an original screenplay by a variety of indicators; dialogue obviously, character depth, story, and how it made me feel. Not all films are designed to make you feel happy in the end, but if it achieved its desired objective (see "Manchester by the Sea"), it's a truly great film. Of the nominees, I have to say Adam McKay's "Vice" gave me the most satisfaction and left the biggest impression on me. I love his work, and am truly excited about his future stories, and judging by his casting in recent films, most of Hollywood is pretty excited about it too.

Best Adapted Screenplay - I tend to look at adapted screenplays as a smidge less impressive than original, but that's the writer snob in me. This year, I have to go with "Blackkklansman" as the most well-written piece. I was pleased when it was included on the best picture list, and much of that is because of the sharp, breezy writing by Spike Lee and his colleagues. Great movie.

Best Cinematographer - Alfonso Cuaron will pick up a trifecta with his masterful cinematography combined with his Foreign Film win as well. If for some reason "Roma" wins best picture, he will net himself an impressive 4 Oscars in one night, which to my knowledge is unprecedented. I'm speculating that he gets 3, which is not too shabby.

Best Song - Shallow by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper. This was the most riveting musical ditty of the year, and not just because it was catchy. The song itself contributed to the gravitas of the film and contained more emotional beauty than can be described. It just frankly worked wonders in bridging the narrative, and exposing and developing the characters. It's a beautiful song when you peel back the layers and look at it as a metaphoric plot device. Sheer cinematic magic.

Other winners? "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-verse", and "Free Solo" (because Mr. Rogers got snubbed). The rest of the categories, I could predict, but I'd be throwing a dart blindfolded.

It will no doubt be an interesting evening, full of potential Monday morning arguments, but it's good for the industry to have categories up in the air until the envelope is opened. Let's just hope that Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty don't screw it up this time.

Alita: Battle Angel

An innocent cybernetic super-soldier warrior girl (Rosa Salazar) is found in a scrap heap by a child-longing cyber-surgeon (Christoph Waltz), leading to a rebirth that will change the way civilization has regressed. Without getting into too much detail of the clever but cliche dystopia, there are haves and have nots. The lowly Iron City dwellers, and the mysterious upper crust living in Salem (pronounced Solemn), a majestic city in the sky. Lawlessness in the city leads to gangs of hunter warriors, futuristic bounty hunters who work for the kingpin, Vector (Mahershala Ali). He in turn works for the faceless eye in the sky, Nova, who is played in a hilarious creditless cameo by... I won't spoil it. As Alita learns about her past, she learns about her future, and she begins to embrace her destiny.

"Alita: Battle Angel" has been in gestation for decades. James Cameron created "Dark Angel" back in 2000, and although unrelated ("Alita" is based on the graphic novel "Gunnm" by Yukito Kishiro) it was a preview of a concept Cameron had of a dystopian future where an elite female warrior saves humanity. It's a timeless tale of... wait, it's not. Cameron is unarguably one of the most visionary directors in history, but his storytelling leaves much to be desired. Remember that little thing he did awhile back, "Avatar?" Everything except the story (and dialogue) was absolute golden brilliance. It was a visual orgasm that moviegoers had never experienced before, and likely won't again (until "Avatar 2" hits in 2020). I'm not saying "Avatar" wasn't worth watching more than once, it is a well-executed and supercool experience, but let's be honest, the "Fern Gully" criticisms and one-with-nature zen message didn't really add value to the action and effects.

This was the reason I was excited to experience the IMAX 3D version of "Alita" to just get a glimmer of cutting edge visual effects. Well, I have some good news and I have some bad news. Which would you like first? The bad news is that the story is weak and recycled from more 1980's sci-fi action films than I could name. The love story is awkward and frankly kind of uncomfortable, and the dialogue is next to awful. The weapons and fight scenes are a bit clunky and blunt (lots of oversized hammers, saws, axes, etc.) and the sporting event sidebar is just unnecessary and adds distraction and cheese to the narrative.

The good news is that two Oscar winning actors, Jennifer Connelly, Jackie Early Haley's voice (my favorite part of the movie) and Rosa Salazar in a stunning motion-capture performance salvage the scrap heap of a story, but just barely. They don't spend too much time developing the 26th century universe, and don't waste our time with the back story flashbacks, or explaining how things work in the new time frame. They just jump into it and move forward. Kudos to Cameron for that. Additionally, and most importantly, the film is visually stunning from start to finish.

The first installment of a trilogy, the next episode will be based on "Last Order" and the third on "Mars Chronicle." I would expect this trilogy to continue as it is clearly a passion project of Cameron, and is likely to make money globally due to the high quality visual effects. Besides, Cameron will get to play with new technology in his spare time while he's developing "Avatar 3, 4, and 5". This is assuming director Robert Rodriguez is interested in continuing, as this was certainly no easy feat. The attention to detail is obvious, and I admire the work and toil this must have taken.

It's for these reasons that I give it a slightly higher rating than I would typically to a movie of this type. I was impressed and disappointed at the same time, but honestly, it synced up with my expectations pretty closely. This is a typically weak time of year for films, and with a lack of viable entertainment options, there are certainly worse ways to spend two hours of your time. 7/10. For the love of Cameron.

Why Disney has Already Won 2019

Disney has long been a titan in the pantheon of cinema, but 2019 just might be a landmark year, and I would recommend purchasing stock before it goes through the roof.

No fewer than six films will certainly cross the $1 billion dollar mark, and the collection in its totality should easily surpass the $10 billion threshold (2019 releases continuing to earn into 2020 included). Personally, I have some interest in the live-action remake genre that has dabbled in years past, only to find an under-the-radar smash hit in 2017's "Beauty and the Beast."

Breaking the films into four distinct categories (Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilms), my prediction is that Disney will carry the five highest grossing films of the year, something that has never been done by a single studio in history.

March is typically the early entries for Box Office supremacy, and we will see "Captain Marvel" take an early lead on the global market. Although highly anticipated and a massive step for Marvel into new territory (powerful female, cosmic powers) it won't echo the success of last year's "Black Panther." Following a few short weeks later is Tim Burton's imaginative take on the beloved classic, "Dumbo." Of all the films on this list, there are perhaps four that I don't intend to see, and "Dumbo" is probably the one I am least interested in.

April brings the documentary "Penguins" as well as the mother of all superhero films, "Avengers: Endgame." Surprisingly, I predict that "Avengers" will fall to fourth place in the annual list. It is certain to be the most satisfying of the films, and I intend to see it multiple times myself, but at three hours, and marking the certain deaths of multiple heroes, it may be a bit too heavy for some audiences. Also, rated PG-13, it loses a certain core demographic that Disney has targeted since the 1930's.

May is when the box office will heat up. "Avengers" will dominate most of the month until "Aladdin" comes out. Headlined by Will Smith as the blue genie, it should do well at the box office, but I don't imagine it will gain the critical acclaim it may be seeking.

June brings "Toy Story 4" which will move "Avengers" to number two on the list, and become the darling of the year until something a bit more frigid hits in November.

In July, it's time to back up the Brinks truck. "Spider-Man: Far From Home" (a Sony release, but in association with Marvel and Disney) is going to be the box office smash that "Black Panther" was last year. Then "Lion King" roars into theatres, and will supplant "Avengers" and "Toy Story" as the box office king of the year.

For those keeping score at home, we now have the top six (or seven) grossing films of the year; "Lion King," "Toy Story 4," "Avengers: Endgame," "Spider-Man: Far From Home," "Aladdin," and "Captain Marvel". "Dumbo" sits on the outside looking in, but don't feel too badly for the floppy-eared elephant, he will still make nine figures.

August brings the lone Disney action film of the year based on the kids novel, "Artemis Fowl." I don't have high hopes for this one, but it should be profitable nonetheless. It has the promise to fill the gap as we all hold our collective breath for the final two films of the year.

November brings the cold, harsh winter, and with it, the unfathomably anticipated "Frozen 2." This will immediately smash records, and will reign as box office queen of 2019, making its permanent mark on boxofficemojo's list of cinematic gladiators. Four films have broken the $2 billion mark in history, and for my money, "Frozen 2" has a strong shot at surpassing its predecessor and hitting that mark.

Closing out the year, we have the finale to the trilogy of trilogies in "Star Wars: Episode IX." It will take strong reviews and audience reception in order to overcome the disappointment of "Episode VIII" which seems a pretty challenging obstacle, even for JJ Abrams.

The executives at Disney Films have brilliantly spaced out their releases to capitalize on the demand and the market, and we will see the highest marketshare in history if you include the Sony/Marvel/Fox collaborations ("Dark Phoenix" and "New Mutants" will expand the X-Men universe this year, setting the table for a whole new world in the ever-expanding MCEU)

Thirty-seven films have grossed over $1 billion in history, and in 2019, Disney will add more than a half dozen films to that order (I predict eight). Not a bad year for a company founded on a mouse. I challenge any other studio to deliver any film that can break into the top six. I give "Pokemon," "Secret Life of Pets 2," and "Hobbs and Shaw" the best shots at climbing the list. Without further ado, here are your highest grossing films of 2019.

1. Frozen 2
2. Lion King
3. Spider-Man: Far From Home (in association with Marvel)
4. Toy Story 4
5. Avengers: Endgame
6. Star Wars: Episode IX
7. The Secret Life of Pets 2
8. Hobbs and Shaw
9. Aladdin
10. Captain Marvel