Golden Globes Preview

Tonight's the night. After numerous lesser publicized (but valuable nonetheless) awards already given out, the official (OK, unofficial) "Pre-Oscar" awards celebration is upon us. Two parentheticals and a quotation in one sentence? Masterful writing if I do say so myself. Anyhow, here is my prognostication in all of the film categories. The awards for television are rolled into the show as well, but I won't be touching that since most of my TV viewing is confined to sports, Jeopardy!, and a variety of toddler shows on Netflix.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) are the voters for this particular award, and they are comprised of 100 journalists who cover film and television for international outlets. According to a source (Chris McKittrick, about.movies.com), it isn't as prestigious as it may seem. The journalistic requirements are simply to publish four articles in the particular year of the awards show. That said, it is a strong indicator and influence on the Academy Awards, whose membership exceeds 6,000. I don't mean to belittle the achievement, but the winners' qualifications can be dubious in my humble opinion. Without further ado, here are Pilskog's Picks for the year as well as potential ramifications for the big show.

Best Screenplay. Perhaps the most accurate and absolutely talent-filled category of the evening, this is a tough call. Do you give the award to the creepy Nocturnal Animals and fashion designer-turned film auteur Tom Ford? Or the up and coming Barry Jenkins for the beautiful Moonlight? Maybe the brilliant and inspiring Damien Chazelle and the critic's darling La La Land? Taylor Sheridan is a talented writer of gritty fare, but Hell or High Water is a bit too simple and depressing (although it is a fantastic film). No, my pick is Kenneth Lonergan and what I consider far and away the best film of the year, Manchester by the Sea. It is heartfelt, executed to near perfection, and cinematic storytelling at its grandest. I could imagine reading this story on a rainy day by the window and getting lost in the narrative. That is the hallmark of great writing. Who will win? Either Chazelle or Jenkins in a possible upset. My money is on Chazelle.

Best Picture - Animated. This one will bug me, and will likely bug me at the Oscars as well. Moana is the strongest animated film of the year, despite some less than spectacular digital execution. The story, music, and feel-good tone is what separates it from the film that will win; Zootopia. Maybe it's the father of a young child in me, but I wasn't impressed by its mature and often mean-spirited mood. Moana was a beautiful film with music by wunderkind Lin-Manuel Miranda.

Best Supporting Actor. I get the Jeff Bridges hype. He's gruff, entertaining, and sounds awesome as a cowboy. But is he worthy of recognition for a role he's done dozens of times before? I say no. He may very well win the award for his turn as the... gruff cowboy sheriff in Hell or High Water, but I prefer Mahershala Ali for his part in Moonlight. I was a little surprised that Aaron Taylor-Johnson was nominated for Nocturnal Animals over his slightly stronger co-star, Michael Shannon, but I foresee the Academy remedying that oversight. Bridges will win because most critics are afraid to stray too far from the perennial favorites. Ali is a personal favorite of mine however.

Best Supporting Actress. I'm not a Nicole Kidman fan, never have been. There. I'll say it. I do however, appreciate the other four actresses. Perhaps the strongest performance of the year is Viola Davis for her absolutely authentic turn as the housewife of an abusive working class man in the 1950's. Michelle Williams was excellent as usual, and the fact that her screentime was kept to a bare minimum helped her cause, but I think she loses a tight race with Davis. I hope she wins, and I predict she will.

Best Director. This is an extremely tough category this year. Fortunately for the nominees, J.A. Bayona wasn't recognized. Maybe his film wasn't eligible due to timing, but he will win the Oscar come March. That said, Damien Chazelle has to be the favorite right now. This year's Golden Globes may reward him for the snubs of Whiplash last year, and rightfully so. The other nominees did a commendable job, but Chazelle's film was more ambitious. His choreographed uncut sequences blew me away and showed just a glimpse of his beautiful mind. Personally, I am excited to follow him over the course of his career, it is sure to be something special. Should win, and will win.

Best Actor - Musical or Comedy. This is the weakest group of nominees in recent memory. No less than three of them don't even deserve nominations, and therefore, this is Ryan Gosling's to lose. Deservedly so, his triple threat performance in La La Land is remarkable. Singing, dancing, acting. I've been a fan of his work for some time now, and he will finally get his due. He has a long career ahead of him, so expect more Oscar nominations (one this year), and a win somewhere down the line (not this year).

Best Actor - Drama. Casey Affleck delivered a performance of a lifetime in Manchester by the Sea and I don't see him losing any Best Actor awards from here until the end of the season.

Best Actress - Musical or Comedy. Emma Stone is fabulous in La La Land, and she will win. Her only real competition is Annette Benning, but let's be honest, Stone is not only the darling of the season, she gave the best performance (see Ryan Gosling).

Best Actress - Drama. Not quite as easy a pick as musical or comedy. This category might be the most wide open with Amy Adams and Natalie Portman as the front-runners, but Jessica Chastain holding a real chance to turn an upset. It will depend on some of the intangibles earlier in the night, and the tone of the voting members. We might see the old school tried and true safe winners, in which case Natalie Portman wins. Or we might see the open-minded, unbiased recognition of individual performance, in which case Adams or Chastain will win. I have a feeling that Portman will win, but I'm pulling for Adams. I really think it was a great role, even if it was in a genre that doesn't usually win awards.

Best Picture - Musical or Comedy. La La Land. No brainer from a critic's and an audience member's perspective. The nominees were a bit of a head-scratcher. Florence Foster Jenkins and Deadpool have no business even being nominated. Admittedly, I haven't seen Sing Street or 20th Century Women yet (don't judge - this is my second job). I can't imagine the musical juggernaut doing anything other than dominating the awards show. It is inspiring, appeals to all audiences, and is generally well-done. The perfect combination to appeal to just enough critics and academy members to win.

Best Picture - Drama. This is really a two film race. Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight. The latter has been making waves at recent awards, and may appeal to the diverse audience. The former is my pick. The other three nominees are all commendable, yet not top tier quality. All worthy of viewing, but I wouldn't even put Hacksaw Ridge in the top five, much less top 10. Nocturnal Animals and A Monster Calls should have been included. My pick? You should already know by now. Who will win? Manchester by the Sea. It's going to head into the Academy Awards with a Golden Globe push, and will win the awards that it truly deserves.

Well, there you have it. Predictions and opinion locked. Enjoy the show :)