2017 Oscar Preview

It's a bit early for an Oscar prediction, right? Never. There are more than a handful of films over the coming three months that will likely enter the discussion for the coveted gold statues, but I am here to offer my pre-release prognostication, sight-unseen. Now, there have been a handful of valiant performances, and even a few good films so far in 2016. I'd like to reserve top ten status until a bit later in the year, but thus far none of them will command recognition come next March. What stands on the horizon are a fairly impressive docket of films from thespians and directors new and old. Some may sound familiar, some won't, but here is my fall preview.

August

August is typically a wasteland reserved for iffy blockbusters, some franchise tentpoles, and films that aren't easily classified. Two such films are "War Dogs" and "Don't Breathe". The former will likely break boundaries as an artistic action comedy biopic. At best, it will be on par with "The Big Short" and at worst, well, let's just say it could definitely be disappointing. The premise is intriguing, as is the director (Todd Phillips), and Miles Teller and Jonah Hill are exceptional actors when given the right project to work with. The latter might be the scariest film of the year, or it might just be another cliche gimmick. However, with a good director (Fede Alvarez) and one of my faves, Stephen Lang, I have high hopes for some edge-of-my seat scares. Gus Van Sant's long-gestating "Sea of Trees" is another one to keep on the radar, but the premise is depressing as hell. Walking into the woods to commit suicide? Wow. I could miss it, but with McConaughey, Van Sant, and Naomi Watts, it might turn some heads.

September

The Oscar buzz begins. "The Light Between Oceans" has gotten some attention, but again, depressing. I think it will fall off the radar after early praise. "Sully" might be the only September film to go the distance with perennial Best Actor darling Tom Hanks (Inferno won't do it), and Clint Eastwood behind the camera. I see this as what "Flight" could have been, and everyone loves a hero. Which is true except when it's mixed with action. "Deepwater Horizon" will be deeply entertaining, but Mark Wahlberg leaves much to be desired and Peter Berg is still hung up on action over real quality. Three other films pique my interest; "American Honey", "Denial", and "Goat". All for different reasons, I could see "Denial" sticking around on critics' top ten lists if it reaches its potential.

October

The real quality films begin coming out. October brings us "Birth of a Nation", "The Accountant", "American Pastoral", and "Moonlight". I could see "Birth of a Nation", which is a semi-true account of the Nat Turner rebellion, gaining some serious looks both because of the content, and as a pendulum swing in the aftermath of the uber-white Hollywood debacle last year. Think "12 Years a Slave". Its problem may be the whole written/directed/starring problem, and Nate Parker's current rape allegations from when he was in college. "The Accountant" gives me pause. I have high hopes, but the director is Gavin O'Connor. "Miracle" and "Warrior" were great films, but I see him as more of a lightweight film maker. I hope I'm wrong, it looks very entertaining.

November

I will be very busy in November. I count four potential Best Picture Oscar films: "Loving" is my current number two. An interracial couple is sentenced to prison in 1950's Virginia for their marriage, directed by Jeff Nichols ("Midnight Special", "Mud", "Take Shelter"). He's flying under the radar as a high quality writer/director, but "Loving" will change that. "Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk" is Ang Lee's new baby. The story and acting may not be the most compelling this year, but Ang Lee always has some tricks up his sleeve; this time filming with a frame rate of 120 frames per second. For reference, "Avatar" was filmed at 24 fps, and "The Hobbit" trilogy broke new territory with 30. This film has been hailed as the dawning of a new era of film making from a technical standpoint, so I would highly recommend 3D IMAX on this one, which I don't do very often. It will be a worthwhile cinematic experience. "Manchester by the Sea" is another one I'm hearing good things about. Still a bit mysterious to me (fly me to special screenings already, Hollywood) it stars Casey Affleck as a man who inherits his brother's son after he dies. It should have the acting covered with Michelle Williams and Kyle Chandler co-starring, and is directed by Kenneth Lonergan, who is a bit inexperienced, but ironically won the "most overlooked film" award among others in 2011 for "Margaret". Rounding out the quality, there is "Bleed for This" which will likely land Miles Teller in the Best Actor grouping, "Hacksaw Ridge" which is a bit of a sleeper, but has potential, "Elle", "Nocturnal Animals", "Rules Don't Apply", and "Allied" all are on my radar as well.

December

Besides "Star Wars", I am probably most interested in "Passengers" with Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. The film has been on the Hollywood Black List (hottest scripts that haven't been done yet), and it has potential for a "Gravity" amount of success, certainly it will do well at the box office. Its biggest problem is opening the week after "Rogue One", but that shouldn't be too much of a problem around Christmas. "La La Land", "Collateral Beauty", "Fences", "Gold", and "20th Century Women", and "Silence" are all going to be potential contenders, but I'm calling it now. The Best Picture of the year will be "The Founder" and Michael Keaton will bring home the coveted gold after just narrowly missing out with "Birdman". This will mark his third year in a row being one of the leads in the Best Picture winner, and will solidify him as a viable if not exceptional leading man. I've always liked him anyhow, but it's really nice to see him getting his due. The Weinsteins have pushed it back from August to December because of the possibilities for awards, and with Nick Offerman and John Carroll Lynch playing the McDonald brothers, and Keaton as Ray Kroc, I think a lot of people will frown upon McDonalds after seeing the real story.

Best Picture Nominees

The sure thing nominees in my eyes are "The Founder", "Loving", "The Birth of a Nation", "Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk", and "Manchester by the Sea". The second tier contenders will be "The Light Between Oceans", "Sully", "Allied", "La La Land", "Moonlight" and "Nocturnal Animals". The winner will be "The Founder".

Which films am I most excited to see? Easy. "Passengers", "Arrival", "The Founder", and of course, "Rogue One". I like to make my predictions early for plausible deniability of accuracy, but also to say that I called it back before anyone else. Like the Mariners winning the World Series this October. And the Seahawks in 2017. Good luck to all, and email me with your thoughts, I'd love to hear them.