Oscar Preview 2016

It's that time of year, when cinema fans around the world tune in to either watch the multi-millionaire celebrities pat themselves on the backs, or watch for what the host will say or do to embarrass them. This year there is the racial controversy as all 20 actors are white. Granted, five of the ten men are British, and four of the ten women as well (and one Swede). I will say that of the possible replacement nominees, I see only Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation) or Michael B. Jordan (Creed) as the only deserving nominees. I don't however see any candidates that don't deserve their nomination, so racist or not, I think the nominations are fair. As is my custom, I only make my prognostications about the "Big 6" as well as the Writing and full- feature Documentary categories. Without further ado, here is a professional film critic's guide to the Oscars.

Best Documentary - Amy has been getting all of the noise for its honest and heartbreaking look at the life and death of Amy Winehouse. Great as it was, I find myself more affected and moved by films about issues that are under-reported in the mainstream media. Cartel Land is suspenseful and raw. More than once the film makers come under fire as they show the increasingly despondent drug war from both sides of the border. Will win - Amy. Should win - Cartel Land.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Adapting a screenplay seems easy. It's definitely the lesser of the two writing categories, but no less important. This year The Martian and The Big Short are the two most compelling films on the list. The Martian was an epic sci-fi feel-good story, while The Big Short made sense of the housing crisis of 2008 by using a sardonic and comedic tone supported by an absolutely stellar cast. Will win - The Big Short. Should win - The Martian.

Best Original Screenplay - There are two films here who could take the prize, and either would honestly be deserving. Ex Machina was one of the most original and well-done thrillers in recent memory, but Spotlight was a harrowing look at the divide between the public Catholic Church, and the cancer that has been eating away at its integrity for years. Will win - Spotlight. Should win - Spotlight.

Best Supporting Actress - This will be the most disappointing win of the evening. Kate Winslet is receiving awards and rave reviews for her performance in Steve Jobs, but the reality is that the film was awful when considering the talent in the actors', writer's, and director's chairs. Winslet would be more apt to win a Tony for her performance, as the film could/should have been done on a Broadway stage. However, given multiple takes and great writing by Aaron Sorkin, her performance in Steve Jobs wouldn't even get her a nomination on the stage. Alicia Vikander delivers what is probably the most authentic performance of the bunch. Mara is too subtle and composed, and McAdams is in a ripe character surrounded by talent. Don't even get me started on the Hateful Eight. Will win - Kate Winslet. Should win - Alicia Vikander.

Best Supporting Actor - Always my favorite category of the evening, this is a strong group of men, but the momentum and affection for Rocky Balboa is just too strong of a tide to turn. The others give stellar performances worthy of nomination without a doubt, and I would say Tom Hardy is the next most deserving, but as often happens, Sylvester Stallone will be rewarded for his entire body of work that has culminated into his role in Creed. It is deserved, and is the best acting of his career. Will win - Sylvester Stallone. Should win - Sylvester Stallone.

Best Actress - This has been Brie Larson's year. Her depiction of a desperate mother ferociously fighting to protect her son is a shockingly touching story. She's the breakout star of the year and will be rewarded with a gold statue after cleaning up in the other awards shows. Will win - Brie Larson. Should win - Brie Larson.

Best Actor - I have been a fan of DiCaprio for a long time now, and he will finally get his due. Don't feel too sorry for the guy though, look at his laundry list of supermodel ex-girlfriends, and he's sitting on a small fortune of net worth, but his acting has long been snubbed. His performance in The Revenant will be very difficult for him to surpass, this may be the high point of his long and illustrious career. But don't count on that, he has a lot of years left in him. Will win - Leonardo DiCaprio. Should win - Leonardo DiCaprio.

Best Director - There are people who decry the idea that a director can win the award two years in a row. Why? Isn't this awards show supposed to give the award to the single best effort in each category for the year? It's hard to block out the background noise of history (see Sylvester Stallone), but this year, it will be a shame if anyone other than Alejandro Inarritu wins the Best Director statue. George Miller is visionary, yes, but Mad Max: Fury Road has its flaws in direction. It is frenetic and chaotic. Sloppy camera-work is amplified by fantastic stunt work and innovative costumes and characters. There are separate categories for this. The direction of The Revenant is beautiful and tragic. Expert and mesmerizing. Will win - Alejandro Innaritu. Should win - Alejandro Innaritu.

Best Picture - This category is interesting to me as Mad Max: Fury Road was given the credit it deserves in its surprising bevy of nominations. Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn are both overrated, and I would have liked to have seen Straight Outta Compton and Ex Machina get a bit more credit for the quality and boldness of their productions. However, this year it is The Revenant's to lose. My favorite film of the year is also the critics' darling, and it should receive the gold statue at the end of the night.

I predict only two undeserving victors in the evening: Kate Winslet, and the documentary Amy. It should be a pretty satisfying awards show, but you never know. Like with sports, anything can happen on any given day. Consider the people who vote. In my limited experience talking with Hollywood insiders, many of them are either not interested in films outside of their own areas of expertise, or don't watch all of the nominees. Big names can win over great performances at any time. Enjoy the show.