2014 Oscar Watch

It might be a bit premature, as it's only late July, but I wanted to be able to say I told you first. There are 22 films I've identified as Best Picture Oscar hopefuls, but there can only be 10, and this year there will be 10, and I'll tell you who will win and why. If trending means anything, it will be The Monuments Men or Inside Llewyn Davis, both of which will be on the final ballot. Why you ask? Because John Goodman is in them. He's been in the last 2 Best Pictures (The Artist, Argo), and is establishing himself as one of the most important role players in Hollywood when it comes to critical success. I am halfheartedly joking. Here are the 22 films with a brief synopsis and prognostication:

Currently in theatres, there is a small scale film that is getting rave reviews for both story and acting. Fruitvale Station and likely Best Actor nominee Michael Jordan (not that Michael Jordan) are one of three racially charged films (a la The Help) that has an outside chance of a nomination. My thoughts are that the odds are against them being released in July, but Michael B. Jordan is the next Denzel Washington.

August brings us two films that are also longshots, not likely to end up on the ballot, but will receive buzz. First, Elysium. I know what you're saying - "it's a sci-fi action film". True, but so was District 9, and this is Neil Blomkamp's follow up to the sharp and deep political themes of futuristic apartheid. Elysium is going to be District 9 with a big budget. The battle of the classes has never looked so cool, and expect an deep philosophical message to linger long after it's over. Of any blockbuster, this stands the best chance of success. The other August release, The Butler, is an early release as well, which diminishes its chances significantly. It might be a bit too racial for some, as it's a biopic of longtime White House butler, Cecil Gaines. Possibly enough to give Forest Whitaker another Oscar nomination. Not a frontrunner by any means, but helmed by rising director Lee Daniels (Precious), this will get some buzz. If the critics rave, it may be on the ballot.

September brings us just one likely nomination, and I have it on my final ten. Rush, by Ron Howard gives Formula One an artistic look, and will surely be an epic. Set in the 1970's in the height of F1 racing, it is a modern day Rocky IV with the Austrian against the British. OK, maybe not Rocky IV, but much more adrenaline-fueled. Expect a fun ride.

October has seven of my picks, but only two will make the final cut. First up is Alfonso Cuaron's Gravity. I'm expecting a Best Director nomination for this one. Think Life of Pi. The entire film takes place in space and has Clooney and Bullock floating. Sounds boring, right? Wrong. It's Cuaron's first film since the absolutely brilliant Children of Men, so it will be good. Unfortunately, audiences won't appreciate it enough to give it the support needed to make the top 10. I have very high hopes though. Then we have Runner, Runner. It's getting a lot of hype, but will be a bit too much action to maintain momentum. It's much easier for action films to get neglected come awards season. Next up is Captain Phillips. Tom Hanks is certain to get a nomination this year, and it's either as Captain Phillips, or Walt Disney. I like the idea of this story, and Paul Greengrass (United 93) is a master of non-fiction. Expect it to polarize audiences due to content and violence, but it will be amazing to say the least. Captain Phillips makes the top ten. The Fifth Estate is next up, and a longshot. The biopic of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange gives us Benedict Cumberbatch front and center. Will he be enough to ensure success? Time will tell. I predict it gets lost in the shuffle. Spike Lee brings us a curious tale of a man held captive for 20 years only to be released unexpectedly. Oldboy follows Josh Brolin down the path of vengeance, and I think it will be more Taxi Driver, and less Do the Right Thing. Think ultra-violent. Might be one of the more fun films in October, but won't get enough steam behind it, or enough mainstream support. The Counselor on the other hand, is going to blow audiences away. A stellar cast, Ridley Scott directing, and written by my absolute favorite author of all time; Cormac McCarthy. This is his first original screenplay, so he may be making the move to Hollywood for good. The Counselor will be a great indicator of his viability, and this is one of my current frontrunners.

November has a couple of heavy hitters, namely August: Osage County and The Wolf of Wall Street. These are going to be two solid films, and I'm hoping to see Leo win his much-deserved Oscar, although I think a nomination is all we can expect from him. August: Osage County brings together one of the best casts of recent memory, and will deliver the Best Actress or Supporting Actress almost automatically. It's the strongest current Best Picture candidate, and has everything an audience looks for, particularly Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts in a family dramedy. Director John Wells hit the jackpot, and is the next David O. Russell. The other longshots are Nebraska, and Mandela: A Long Walk to Freedom. Both will serve up strong male performances, but Nebraska (black and white, and Alexander Payne) will be too small-scale, and Mandela will be a bit too redundant after Invictus just a couple of years ago. I really do like Idris Elba though. Oh, there's a little film called Catching Fire coming out in November as well, expect it to shatter box office records. It will become a top 5 grossing film of all time, behind just Avatar, Titanic, and Avengers.

December holds the biggest group of likely nominees. Let's start with the quirky Inside Llewyn Davis. The Coen Brothers are perennial favorites of mine, and this homage to 1970's folk music might be just touching enough to make the final cut. We also have The Dallas Buyer's Club, which is interesting, but might fall flat, despite what might be Matthew McConaughey's best performance. Then, American Hustle. David O. Russell takes his Oscar nominated family and mixes them together pairing Jennifer Lawrence with Christian Bale, and Amy Adams with Bradley Cooper. It's a stellar cast regardless of the story, but with Silver Linings Playbook and The Fighter over the past few years, does it really even matter what it's about? Monuments Men. George Clooney goes all-in much like Affleck did with Argo last year, and we see a Nazi themed historical fiction story. This is one of the few that could actually win. Saving Mr. Banks might be a bit too light, but then again, it is Tom Hanks as Walt Disney. This is my number 11 right now, and I would choose it over Grace of Monaco, but I have a feeling that a European royalty story will need to be included in the mix. And for some reason I just can't figure out, people love Nicole Kidman. This will make the final cut just to appease the uppity academy members. 12 Years a Slave will be the racially charged Academy nominee this year. Think Django without the gratuitous violence or quirky Tarantino perspective. It's a compelling true story, and will surely rivet audiences. Finally, I'm excited for the Peter Berg biopic, Lone Survivor. It has potential as a story to be this year's Zero Dark Thirty, but with Peter Berg behind it, and Mark Wahlberg as the lead, it will more likely be like Black Hawk Down. Either way, I'm really excited to see how they put the story of four Navy SEALs pinned down by over two hundred Taliban in Afghanistan on the screen. Great cast with Taylor Kitsch, Emile Hirsch, and Ben Foster as the unfortunate other three.

This year is absolutely chock full of quality stories, acting, and direction. There is a lot of promise for this to be one of the better Oscar seasons in recent memory, and I think the Academy is finally rewarding the "right" nominees. Let's hope it continues.

Recap: The ten best picture nominees are...
September: Rush
October: Captain Phillips, The Counselor
November: August: Osage County, The Wolf of Wall Street
December: Inside Llewyn Davis, American Hustle, Monuments Men, 12 Years a Slave, Grace of Monaco

Real shots at Best Picture: The Counselor, Monuments Men, August: Osage County.

Who I would pick as an early winner: The Counselor.

Who will win Best Picture: August: Osage County.