2011 Academy Awards Predictions

The time is almost here for the big cinematic event of the year to initiate water cooler discussions at work like the Super Bowl commercials did a few weeks ago. Cinemophiles of the world rejoice for this one evening, joining together to celebrate and harangue celebrities who deserve our accolades, and fancy themselves bigger than life. It's a star-studded spectacle that is entertaining if nothing else, but for a true film fanatic, it is not just an opportunity to see all of the A-listers in one room, it is the chance to take the collective temperature of the acting community. Case in point; last year, Avatar was the box office juggernaut that seemed untouchable until Cameron's ex comes along with the art-house Hurt Locker, and knocked it on its Na'vi ass.

It's time to take inventory of the important categories.

Best Picture -

Since opening up to 10 nominations, there is a noticeable drop in prestige and exclusivity. Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone, The Kids Are All Right? None has a shot in hell of winning the coveted prize, so why nominate them at all? The simple answer is this: Inception. A film that pushed the boundaries of imagination, and showcased one of the great action writer/directors of our time would not stand a chance in this category against Black Swan, True Grit, 127 Hours, The Social Network, and the King's Speech. It's a fact. Christopher Nolan is getting some of his just desserts, but it is a noble lost cause. He has no chance either.

Winner - The King's Speech. Not my favorite film of the year, and among the aforementioned 5, not even my second favorite, but the momentum has been growing like wildfire over the past few weeks, and it seems that The Social Network peaked too soon.

For the record, True Grit was a masterpiece, and would win if I had my druthers. The snub of the group is Blue Valentine, which is shockingly heartbreaking, but there will always be differences of opinions with 10 candidates. Please, Hollywood, go back to 5.

Best Director -

This year is an instance where the Best Picture may not match the Director. Not to take anything away from Tom Hooper, but no less than three films come to mind that are much more memorable. David Fincher will win this category. He was shafted two years ago by Slumdog Millionaire, and will pick up his first statue in his second nomination.

Winner - David Fincher.

Best Actor -

This category is absolutely loaded with talent, but it's a foregone conclusion that Colin Firth will win, which is much deserved. Jeff Bridges gives a mesmerizing performance in True Grit, but it is not enough to match Firth's King George.

Winner - Colin Firth.

Best Actress -

This category is just as much a runaway as Best Actor, if not moreso. Natalie Portman knocked her role out of the park in Black Swan, so there is no question that she will win. It's not even worth a discussion at this point.

Winner - Natalie Portman.

Best Supporting Actor -

As is typical with the awards ceremony, this category has the most eclectic collection of characters. I recently watched Winter's Bone, and John Hawkes blew me away. I still remember him as the liquor store clerk in From Dusk Till Dawn, and he has spent years as a supporting actor. I am very glad that he was recognized for this particular performance. Unfortunately, it's not going to be enough. Ruffalo did a nice job, as did Renner, but it's Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush that rise to the top. I feel badly for Bale that he is so close to tasting Oscar gold despite being one of the most talented actors for nearly a decade. Unfortunately, Geoffrey Rush found the right film, with the right actor and pulled off a brilliant performance. This one will upset some viewers, but Bale will be snubbed and Rush will win the statue.

Winner - Geoffrey Rush.

Best Supporting Actress -

I am excited to see the outcome of this award more than any other. Animal Kingdom was too small of a film, and to be honest, Jackie Weaver wasn't overly memorable. Melissa Leo is building quite the resume, but it is often difficult to win an award when someone in your film is nominated alongside you (Amy Adams).

My pick is the most deserving of the bunch; 14 year old Hailee Steinfeld. She owns the screen even though she shares it with Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon. That is a daunting task, in a Coen Brothers film no less. She shines, and has an incredibly bright future in the business. Of course, her precocious demeanor is her meal ticket, so she may fade into obscurity in about 5 years. For now however, it is her 15 minutes.

Winner - Hailee Steinfeld.

Other winners:

Cinematography - True Grit. Roger Deakins is the Susan Lucci of Cinematographers. 9 time nominee will walk away with a win this year.

Art Direction - Inception. A visual orgy blended seamlessly with costumes, settings, and props.

Original Screenplay - The King's Speech. Beautifully done.

Adapted Screenplay - The Social Network. Great dialogue, Sorkin at his best. The film manages to escalate tension in such a benign setting.

Editing - 127 Hours. This is a shot in the dark, but I do feel that the film deserves to be recognized for its quirky, artful editing.

Visual and Sound categories - Inception. A visual masterpiece that was amplified by the score and the audio effects.

Documentary - Restrepo. This was a fantastic look at the most dangerous outpost in Afghanistan. Truly melancholy and haunting at the same time.

Original Score - Inception. The pounding tones still reverberate, sending chills down my spine.

Foreign Picture - Biutiful. The one film I haven't seen, I am convinced that Javier Bardem deserves his Oscar nomination, and this film will appeal to American sensibilities due to familiarity alone.

Well, there you have it. Your guide to the big show. Enjoy, and stay tuned for the summer blockbusters, starting next month with Battle: Los Angeles.