Golden Globe and SAG analysis

The Hollywood Foreign Press and the Screen Actor's Guild have spoken, and they lend some surprising clues toward who may win the Oscars come March.

First, the awards that were both anticipated, and uncontested. Avatar for Best Picture and Cameron for Best Director. These will undoubtedly be repeated at the big show. Not that it is the best story, or even maybe film of the year, but the fact remains that 15 years in the making, revolutionary film making technology, and the potential to be the first film ever to gross 2 billion dollars worldwide are worthy of recognition. It is an achievement never before seen, and it will win all technical awards as well. The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up in the Air were exceptionally well-made and entertaining films, but they lack the momentum and buzz of Avatar.

Christoph Waltz and Mo'Nique for Supporting Actor and Actress. Waltz was incredible in Inglourious Basterds, and although I haven't seen Precious, the ladies from Up in the Air will hurt each other's chances to win. Nine is too weak of a film, and the fifth nomination is yet to be determined.

Jeff Bridges has cleaned up the major awards with his come from nowhere film Crazy Heart. I see this as the equivalent of last year's Wrestler, which probably should have won Mickey Rourke the Oscar. It was a small film, and there were some skeptics, but Bridges has more recognition and has proven his acting value with four previous nominations. He should win over Clooney and Renner, although both of them deserve the recognition for brilliant performances and have added an array of critics prizes over the past month or two.

Sandra Bullock is the big surprise for me. She has received none of the best acting awards except for the Golden Globe and the SAG. She wasn't on my radar, and I think it is more unlikely that she will lose the Oscar in a relative upset. Sidibe, Mulligan, and Streep all are more viable candidates in my opinion. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Meryl Streep wins her 3rd Oscar in her 16th nomination. (Not a typo - 16th Oscar nomination). This would put her in the elite company of Ingrid Bergman, Walter Brennan, and Jack Nicholson. Only Katherine Hepburn has won more acting Oscars (4). Streep may tie or beat that before her career is over.

Up in the Air seems to be a lock for Adapted Screenplay. The category is weak, and it was one of the best films of the year. Loved by critics (and myself), it stands out like a sore thumb.

Inglourious Basterds should win Original Screenplay. It is fresh, creative, and has the Tarantino touch. The only possibly competitors are Avatar for obvious reasons, or the Hurt Locker. I would be happy if any of the three win the prize, although Avatar is too visual and not substantive enough to truly deserve it.

Those are the categories worth singling out. Check back in the next couple of months, and see how accurate my predictions are.